Saturday

Saturday

Browse this week's slate

Every live game, tracked against the call

METHODOLOGY & ACCURACY

How the model works, and whether it does

See where every team stands, replay 2025

Who makes the twelve-team field

What we said, what happened, and where we split from the market

Every projection, week by week, as a CSV

BEAT SATURDAYSOON

Your call against the projected margin

DATA AS OF OCT 6 · 12:37 PM ET

ANALYTICAL INSTRUMENT · NOT BETTING ADVICE

LEGAL PRIVACY TERMS

Week 1 Predictions · 2025

Every game of the 2025 Week 1 slate, with the win probability and projected score Saturday set before kickoff, next to the final score. Every number here was set before kickoff, on nothing but the games already played. Open any game for its full range of outcomes.

ALL GAMES

91 GAMES

THURSDAY, AUGUST 2817 GAMES

5:30 PM ET · Tampa, FLFINALBOIS 7–34 USF5:30 PM ETTampa, FL#25 Boise State@South FloridaFINALBOIS 7–34 USF66%34%

6:00 PM ET · Bowling Green, OHFINALLAF 7–26 BGSU6:00 PM ETBowling Green, OHLafayette@Bowling GreenFINALLAF 7–26 BGSU12%88%

6:00 PM ET · Piscataway, NJFINALOHIO 31–34 RUTG6:00 PM ETPiscataway, NJOhio@RutgersFINALOHIO 31–34 RUTG25%75%

7:00 PM ET · Akron, OHFINALWYO 10–0 AKR7:00 PM ETAkron, OHWyoming@AkronFINALWYO 10–0 AKR70%30%

7:00 PM ET · Orlando, FLFINALJXST 10–17 UCF7:00 PM ETOrlando, FLJacksonville State@UCFFINALJXST 10–17 UCF14%86%

7:00 PM ET · Newark, DEFINALDSU 17–35 DEL7:00 PM ETNewark, DEDelaware State@DelawareFINALDSU 17–35 DEL7%93%

7:00 PM ET · Monroe, LAFINALSFPA 0–29 ULM7:00 PM ETMonroe, LASaint Francis@UL MonroeFINALSFPA 0–29 ULM7%93%

7:00 PM ET · Raleigh, NCFINALECU 17–24 NCSU7:00 PM ETVictory BarrelVictory BarrelEast Carolina@NC StateRIVALRYFINALECU 17–24 NCSU25%75%

7:30 PM ET · Durham, NCFINALELON 17–45 DUKE7:30 PM ETDurham, NCElon@DukeFINALELON 17–45 DUKE3%97%

7:30 PM ET · Stillwater, OKFINALUTM 7–27 OKST7:30 PM ETStillwater, OKUT Martin@Oklahoma StateFINALUTM 7–27 OKST9%91%

7:30 PM ET · Columbia, MOFINALCARK 6–61 MIZ7:30 PM ETColumbia, MOCentral Arkansas@MissouriFINALCARK 6–61 MIZ2%98%

8:00 PM ET · Minneapolis, MNFINALBUF 10–23 MINN8:00 PM ETMinneapolis, MNBuffalo@MinnesotaFINALBUF 10–23 MINN13%87%

8:00 PM ET · Houston, TXFINALSFA 0–27 HOU8:00 PM ETHouston, TXStephen F. Austin@HoustonFINALSFA 0–27 HOU7%93%

8:30 PM ET · Birmingham, ALFINALALST 42–52 UAB8:30 PM ETBirmingham, ALAlabama State@UABFINALALST 42–52 UAB13%87%

9:00 PM ET · Kansas City, MOFINALNEB 20–17 CIN9:00 PM ETKansas City, MONebraskaVSCincinnatiFINALNEB 20–17 CIN64%36%

9:00 PM ET · Madison, WIFINALM-OH 0–17 WIS9:00 PM ETMadison, WIMiami (OH)@WisconsinFINALM-OH 0–17 WIS15%85%

10:00 PM ET · San Diego, CAFINALSTBK 0–42 SDSU10:00 PM ETSan Diego, CAStony Brook@San Diego StateFINALSTBK 0–42 SDSU21%79%

FRIDAY, AUGUST 2911 GAMES

6:00 PM ET · West Point, NYFINALTAR 30–27 ARMY6:00 PM ETWest Point, NYTarleton State@ArmyFINALTAR 30–27 ARMY23%77%

7:00 PM ET · Miami, FLFINALBCU 9–42 FIU7:00 PM ETMiami, FLBethune-Cookman@Florida InternationalFINALBCU 9–42 FIU5%95%

7:00 PM ET · Charlotte, NCFINALAPP 34–11 CLT7:00 PM ETCharlotte, NCApp StateVSCharlotteFINALAPP 34–11 CLT72%28%

7:00 PM ET · East Lansing, MIFINALWMU 6–23 MSU7:00 PM ETEast Lansing, MIWestern Michigan@Michigan StateFINALWMU 6–23 MSU10%90%

7:00 PM ET · Winston-Salem, NCFINALKENN 9–10 WAKE7:00 PM ETWinston-Salem, NCKennesaw State@Wake ForestFINALKENN 9–10 WAKE8%92%

7:30 PM ET · Champaign, ILFINALWIU 3–52 ILL7:30 PM ETChampaign, ILWestern Illinois@#12 IllinoisFINALWIU 3–52 ILL2%98%

7:30 PM ET · Lawrence, KSFINALWAG 7–46 KU7:30 PM ETLawrence, KSWagner@KansasFINALWAG 7–46 KU2%98%

8:00 PM ET · Boulder, COFINALGT 27–20 COLO8:00 PM ETBoulder, COGeorgia Tech@ColoradoFINALGT 27–20 COLO52%48%

8:00 PM ET · Waco, TXFINALAUB 38–24 BAY8:00 PM ETWaco, TXAuburn@BaylorFINALAUB 38–24 BAY50%50%

9:30 PM ET · Houston, TXFINALUNLV 38–21 SHSU9:30 PM ETHouston, TXUNLVVSSam HoustonFINALUNLV 38–21 SHSU70%30%

10:30 PM ET · San Jose, CAFINALCMU 16–14 SJSU10:30 PM ETSan Jose, CACentral Michigan@San José StateFINALCMU 16–14 SJSU25%75%

SATURDAY, AUGUST 3060 GAMES

12:00 PM ET · Columbus, OHFINALTEX 7–14 OSU12:00 PM ETColumbus, OH#1 Texas@#3 Ohio StateFINALTEX 7–14 OSU54%46%

12:00 PM ET · Atlanta, GAFINALSYR 26–45 TENN12:00 PM ETAtlanta, GASyracuseVS#24 TennesseeFINALSYR 26–45 TENN31%69%

12:00 PM ET · Annapolis, MDFINALVMI 7–52 NAVY12:00 PM ETAnnapolis, MDVMI@NavyFINALVMI 7–52 NAVY2%98%

12:00 PM ET · West Lafayette, INFINALBALL 0–31 PUR12:00 PM ETWest Lafayette, INBall State@PurdueFINALBALL 0–31 PUR11%89%

12:00 PM ET · New Orleans, LAFINALNU 3–23 TULN12:00 PM ETNew Orleans, LANorthwestern@TulaneFINALNU 3–23 TULN37%63%

12:00 PM ET · Hattiesburg, MSFINALMSST 34–17 USM12:00 PM ETHattiesburg, MSMississippi State@Southern MissFINALMSST 34–17 USM75%25%

12:00 PM ET · Kent, OHFINALMRMK 17–21 KENT12:00 PM ETKent, OHMerrimack@Kent StateFINALMRMK 17–21 KENT52%48%

12:00 PM ET · College Park, MDFINALFAU 7–39 MD12:00 PM ETCollege Park, MDFlorida Atlantic@MarylandFINALFAU 7–39 MD25%75%

12:00 PM ET · Pittsburgh, PAFINALDUQ 9–61 PITT12:00 PM ETPittsburgh, PADuquesne@PittsburghFINALDUQ 9–61 PITT3%97%

12:45 PM ET · Lexington, KYFINALTOL 16–24 UK12:45 PM ETLexington, KYToledo@KentuckyFINALTOL 16–24 UK24%76%

2:00 PM ET · East Hartford, CTFINALCCSU 13–59 CONN2:00 PM ETEast Hartford, CTCentral Connecticut@UConnFINALCCSU 13–59 CONN6%94%

2:00 PM ET · Chestnut Hill, MAFINALFOR 10–66 BC2:00 PM ETChestnut Hill, MAFordham@Boston CollegeFINALFOR 10–66 BC2%98%

2:00 PM ET · Morgantown, WVFINALRMU 3–45 WVU2:00 PM ETMorgantown, WVRobert Morris@West VirginiaFINALRMU 3–45 WVU3%97%

2:30 PM ET · Bloomington, INFINALODU 14–27 IU2:30 PM ETBloomington, INOld Dominion@#20 IndianaFINALODU 14–27 IU11%89%

3:00 PM ET · Louisville, KYFINALEKU 17–51 LOU3:00 PM ETLouisville, KYEastern Kentucky@LouisvilleFINALEKU 17–51 LOU2%98%

3:30 PM ET · University Park, PAFINALNEV 11–46 PSU3:30 PM ETUniversity Park, PANevada@#2 Penn StateFINALNEV 11–46 PSU2%98%

3:30 PM ET · Athens, GAFINALMRSH 7–45 UGA3:30 PM ETAthens, GAMarshall@#5 GeorgiaFINALMRSH 7–45 UGA3%97%

3:30 PM ET · Tallahassee, FLFINALALA 17–31 FSU3:30 PM ETTallahassee, FL#8 Alabama@Florida StateFINALALA 17–31 FSU78%22%

3:30 PM ET · Ames, IAFINALSDAK 7–55 ISU3:30 PM ETAmes, IASouth Dakota@#22 Iowa StateFINALSDAK 7–55 ISU7%93%

3:30 PM ET · Hadley, MAFINALTEM 42–10 MASS3:30 PM ETHadley, MATemple@MassachusettsFINALTEM 42–10 MASS73%27%

3:30 PM ET · DeKalb, ILFINALHC 17–19 NIU3:30 PM ETDeKalb, ILHoly Cross@Northern IllinoisFINALHC 17–19 NIU20%80%

3:30 PM ET · Colorado Springs, COFINALBUCK 13–49 AF3:30 PM ETColorado Springs, COBucknell@Air ForceFINALBUCK 13–49 AF6%94%

4:00 PM ET · Eugene, ORFINALMTST 13–59 ORE4:00 PM ETEugene, ORMontana State@#7 OregonFINALMTST 13–59 ORE3%97%

4:00 PM ET · Lynchburg, VAFINALME 7–28 LIB4:00 PM ETLynchburg, VAMaine@LibertyFINALME 7–28 LIB5%95%

4:15 PM ET · Fayetteville, ARFINALAAMU 7–52 ARK4:15 PM ETFayetteville, ARAlabama A&M@ArkansasFINALAAMU 7–52 ARK2%98%

4:30 PM ET · Memphis, TNFINALUTC 10–45 MEM4:30 PM ETMemphis, TNChattanooga@MemphisFINALUTC 10–45 MEM7%93%

6:00 PM ET · Norman, OKFINALILST 3–35 OU6:00 PM ETNorman, OKIllinois State@#18 OklahomaFINALILST 3–35 OU2%98%

6:00 PM ET · Charlottesville, VAFINALCCU 7–48 UVA6:00 PM ETCharlottesville, VACoastal Carolina@VirginiaFINALCCU 7–48 UVA29%71%

6:00 PM ET · Iowa City, IAFINALUALB 7–34 IOWA6:00 PM ETIowa City, IAUAlbany@IowaFINALUALB 7–34 IOWA2%98%

6:00 PM ET · Harrisonburg, VAFINALWEB 10–45 JMU6:00 PM ETHarrisonburg, VAWeber State@James MadisonFINALWEB 10–45 JMU4%96%

7:00 PM ET · Gainesville, FLFINALLIU 0–55 FLA7:00 PM ETGainesville, FLLong Island University@#15 FloridaFINALLIU 0–55 FLA2%98%

7:00 PM ET · Manhattan, KSFINALUND 35–38 KSU7:00 PM ETManhattan, KSNorth Dakota@#17 Kansas StateFINALUND 35–38 KSU2%98%

7:00 PM ET · College Station, TXFINALUTSA 24–42 TA&M7:00 PM ETCollege Station, TXUTSA@#19 Texas A&MFINALUTSA 24–42 TA&M8%92%

7:00 PM ET · Mobile, ALFINALMORG 21–38 USA7:00 PM ETMobile, ALMorgan State@South AlabamaFINALMORG 21–38 USA6%94%

7:00 PM ET · Murfreesboro, TNFINALAPSU 34–14 MTSU7:00 PM ETMurfreesboro, TNAustin Peay@Middle TennesseeFINALAPSU 34–14 MTSU29%71%

7:00 PM ET · Troy, ALFINALNICH 20–38 TROY7:00 PM ETTroy, ALNicholls@TroyFINALNICH 20–38 TROY13%87%

7:00 PM ET · Nashville, TNFINALCHSO 3–45 VAN7:00 PM ETNashville, TNCharleston Southern@VanderbiltFINALCHSO 3–45 VAN2%98%

7:00 PM ET · Bowling Green, KYFINALUNA 6–55 WKU7:00 PM ETBowling Green, KYNorth Alabama@Western KentuckyFINALUNA 6–55 WKU8%92%

7:00 PM ET · Jonesboro, ARFINALSEMO 24–42 ARST7:00 PM ETJonesboro, ARSoutheast Missouri State@Arkansas StateFINALSEMO 24–42 ARST17%83%

7:30 PM ET · Clemson, SCFINALLSU 17–10 CLEM7:30 PM ETClemson, SC#9 LSU@#4 ClemsonFINALLSU 17–10 CLEM35%65%

7:30 PM ET · Ann Arbor, MIFINALUNM 17–34 MICH7:30 PM ETAnn Arbor, MINew Mexico@#14 MichiganFINALUNM 17–34 MICH2%98%

7:30 PM ET · Lubbock, TXFINALUAPB 7–67 TTU7:30 PM ETLubbock, TXArkansas-Pine Bluff@#23 Texas TechFINALUAPB 7–67 TTU2%98%

7:30 PM ET · Ruston, LAFINALSELA 0–24 LT7:30 PM ETRuston, LASE Louisiana@Louisiana TechFINALSELA 0–24 LT15%85%

7:30 PM ET · Logan, UTFINALUTEP 16–28 USU7:30 PM ETLogan, UTUTEP@Utah StateFINALUTEP 16–28 USU39%61%

7:30 PM ET · Los Angeles, CAFINALMOST 13–73 USC7:30 PM ETLos Angeles, CAMissouri State@USCFINALMOST 13–73 USC2%98%

7:45 PM ET · Oxford, MSFINALGAST 7–63 MISS7:45 PM ETOxford, MSGeorgia State@#21 Ole MissFINALGAST 7–63 MISS3%97%

8:00 PM ET · Denton, TXFINALLAM 0–51 UNT8:00 PM ETDenton, TXLamar@North TexasFINALLAM 0–51 UNT10%90%

8:00 PM ET · Lafayette, LAFINALRICE 14–12 UL8:00 PM ETLafayette, LARice@LouisianaFINALRICE 14–12 UL22%78%

8:00 PM ET · Provo, UTFINALPRST 0–69 BYU8:00 PM ETProvo, UTPortland State@BYUFINALPRST 0–69 BYU2%98%

8:00 PM ET · San Marcos, TXFINALEMU 27–52 TXST8:00 PM ETSan Marcos, TXEastern Michigan@Texas StateFINALEMU 27–52 TXST19%81%

8:00 PM ET · Tulsa, OKFINALACU 7–35 TLSA8:00 PM ETTulsa, OKAbilene Christian@TulsaFINALACU 7–35 TLSA41%59%

9:00 PM ET · University Park, TXFINALETAM 13–42 SMU9:00 PM ETUniversity Park, TXEast Texas A&M@#16 SMUFINALETAM 13–42 SMU2%98%

9:00 PM ET · Las Cruces, NMFINALBRY 3–19 NMSU9:00 PM ETLas Cruces, NMBryant@New Mexico StateFINALBRY 3–19 NMSU16%84%

9:30 PM ET · Fresno, CAFINALGASO 14–42 FRES9:30 PM ETFresno, CAGeorgia Southern@Fresno StateFINALGASO 14–42 FRES49%51%

10:00 PM ET · Tempe, AZFINALNAU 19–38 ASU10:00 PM ETTempe, AZNorthern Arizona@#11 Arizona StateFINALNAU 19–38 ASU2%98%

10:00 PM ET · Pullman, WAFINALIDHO 10–13 WSU10:00 PM ETPullman, WAIdaho@Washington StateFINALIDHO 10–13 WSU19%81%

10:30 PM ET · Tucson, AZFINALHAW 6–40 ARIZ10:30 PM ETTucson, AZHawai'i@ArizonaFINALHAW 6–40 ARIZ26%74%

10:30 PM ET · Corvallis, ORFINALCAL 34–15 ORST10:30 PM ETCorvallis, ORCalifornia@Oregon StateFINALCAL 34–15 ORST52%48%

11:00 PM ET · Pasadena, CAFINALUTAH 43–10 UCLA11:00 PM ETPasadena, CAUtah@UCLAFINALUTAH 43–10 UCLA50%50%

11:00 PM ET · Seattle, WAFINALCSU 21–38 WASH11:00 PM ETSeattle, WAColorado State@WashingtonFINALCSU 21–38 WASH15%85%

SUNDAY, AUGUST 312 GAMES

3:00 PM ET · Atlanta, GAFINALVT 11–24 SC3:00 PM ETAtlanta, GAVirginia TechVS#13 South CarolinaFINALVT 11–24 SC31%69%

7:30 PM ET · Miami Gardens, FLFINALND 24–27 MIA7:30 PM ETMiami Gardens, FL#6 Notre Dame@#10 MiamiFINALND 24–27 MIA51%49%

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 11 GAME

8:00 PM ET · Chapel Hill, NCFINALTCU 48–14 UNC8:00 PM ETChapel Hill, NCTCU@North CarolinaFINALTCU 48–14 UNC52%48%

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