Saturday
Saturday
GAMES

Browse this week's slate

›
METHODOLOGY & ACCURACY

How the model works, and whether it does

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POWER RANKINGS

See where every team stands, replay 2025

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PLAYOFF MODEL

Who makes the twelve-team field

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THE LEDGER

What we said, what happened, and where we split from the market

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BEAT SATURDAYSOON

Your call against the projected margin

DATA AS OF AUG 22 · 2:29 PM ET

ANALYTICAL INSTRUMENT · NOT BETTING ADVICE

LEGALPRIVACYTERMS

Week 1 Predictions · 2025

Every game of the 2025 Week 1 slate, with the win probability and projected score Saturday set before kickoff, next to the final score. The numbers come from one rating per team, fit on scoring margin from the games played before each kickoff, with no foresight. Open any game for its full range of outcomes.

ALL GAMES

91 GAMES
THURSDAY, AUGUST 2817 GAMES
 
5:30 PM ET · Tampa, FLFINALBOIS 7–34 USFBOIS#25 Boise State@USFSouth Florida66%34%
6:00 PM ET · Piscataway, NJFINALOHIO 31–34 RUTGOHIOOhio@RUTGRutgers44%56%
6:00 PM ET · Bowling Green, OHFINALLAF 7–26 BGSULAFLafayette@BGSUBowling Green12%88%
7:00 PM ET · Monroe, LAFINALSFPA 0–29 ULMSFPASaint Francis@ULMUL Monroe8%92%
7:00 PM ET · Akron, OHFINALWYO 10–0 AKRWYOWyoming@AKRAkron53%47%
7:00 PM ET · Raleigh, NCFINALECU 17–24 NCSUVictory BarrelECUEast Carolina@NCSUNC State28%72%
7:00 PM ET · Orlando, FLFINALJXST 10–17 UCFJXSTJacksonville State@UCFUCF23%77%
7:00 PM ET · Newark, DEFINALDSU 17–35 DELDSUDelaware State@DELDelaware8%92%
7:30 PM ET · Durham, NCFINALELON 17–45 DUKEELONElon@DUKEDuke3%97%
7:30 PM ET · Columbia, MOFINALCARK 6–61 MIZCARKCentral Arkansas@MIZMissouri2%98%
7:30 PM ET · Stillwater, OKFINALUTM 7–27 OKSTUTMUT Martin@OKSTOklahoma State9%91%
8:00 PM ET · Houston, TXFINALSFA 0–27 HOUSFAStephen F. Austin@HOUHouston7%93%
8:00 PM ET · Minneapolis, MNFINALBUF 10–23 MINNBUFBuffalo@MINNMinnesota12%88%
8:30 PM ET · Birmingham, ALFINALALST 42–52 UABALSTAlabama State@UABUAB13%87%
9:00 PM ET · Madison, WIFINALM-OH 0–17 WISM-OHMiami (OH)@WISWisconsin29%71%
9:00 PM ET · Kansas City, MOFINALNEB 20–17 CINNEBNebraskaVSCINCincinnati51%49%
10:00 PM ET · San Diego, CAFINALSTBK 0–42 SDSUSTBKStony Brook@SDSUSan Diego State21%79%
FRIDAY, AUGUST 2911 GAMES
6:00 PM ET · West Point, NYFINALTAR 30–27 ARMYTARTarleton State@ARMYArmy23%77%
7:00 PM ET · Winston-Salem, NCFINALKENN 9–10 WAKEKENNKennesaw State@WAKEWake Forest16%84%
7:00 PM ET · East Lansing, MIFINALWMU 6–23 MSUWMUWestern Michigan@MSUMichigan State22%78%
7:00 PM ET · Miami, FLFINALBCU 9–42 FIUBCUBethune-Cookman@FIUFlorida International5%95%
7:00 PM ET · Charlotte, NCFINALAPP 34–11 CLTAPPApp StateVSCLTCharlotte55%45%
7:30 PM ET · Champaign, ILFINALWIU 3–52 ILLWIUWestern Illinois@ILL#12 Illinois2%98%
7:30 PM ET · Lawrence, KSFINALWAG 7–46 KUWAGWagner@KUKansas2%98%
8:00 PM ET · Boulder, COFINALGT 27–20 COLOGTGeorgia Tech@COLOColorado40%60%
8:00 PM ET · Waco, TXFINALAUB 38–24 BAYAUBAuburn@BAYBaylor49%51%
9:30 PM ET · Houston, TXFINALUNLV 38–21 SHSUUNLVUNLVVSSHSUSam Houston69%31%
10:30 PM ET · San Jose, CAFINALCMU 16–14 SJSUCMUCentral Michigan@SJSUSan José State24%76%
SATURDAY, AUGUST 3060 GAMES
12:00 PM ET · Columbus, OHFINALTEX 7–14 OSUTEX#1 Texas@OSU#3 Ohio State39%61%
12:00 PM ET · Atlanta, GAFINALSYR 26–45 TENNSYRSyracuseVSTENN#24 Tennessee29%71%
12:00 PM ET · Pittsburgh, PAFINALDUQ 9–61 PITTDUQDuquesne@PITTPittsburgh3%97%
12:00 PM ET · College Park, MDFINALFAU 7–39 MDFAUFlorida Atlantic@MDMaryland25%75%
12:00 PM ET · West Lafayette, INFINALBALL 0–31 PURBALLBall State@PURPurdue29%71%
12:00 PM ET · New Orleans, LAFINALNU 3–23 TULNNUNorthwestern@TULNTulane17%83%
12:00 PM ET · Kent, OHFINALMRMK 17–21 KENTMRMKMerrimack@KENTKent State52%48%
12:00 PM ET · Annapolis, MDFINALVMI 7–52 NAVYVMIVMI@NAVYNavy2%98%
12:00 PM ET · Hattiesburg, MSFINALMSST 34–17 USMMSSTMississippi State@USMSouthern Miss80%20%
12:45 PM ET · Lexington, KYFINALTOL 16–24 UKTOLToledo@UKKentucky24%76%
2:00 PM ET · Chestnut Hill, MAFINALFOR 10–66 BCFORFordham@BCBoston College2%98%
2:00 PM ET · East Hartford, CTFINALCCSU 13–59 CONNCCSUCentral Connecticut@CONNUConn6%94%
2:00 PM ET · Morgantown, WVFINALRMU 3–45 WVURMURobert Morris@WVUWest Virginia3%97%
2:30 PM ET · Bloomington, INFINALODU 14–27 IUODUOld Dominion@IU#20 Indiana16%84%
3:00 PM ET · Louisville, KYFINALEKU 17–51 LOUEKUEastern Kentucky@LOULouisville2%98%
3:30 PM ET · University Park, PAFINALNEV 11–46 PSUNEVNevada@PSU#2 Penn State5%95%
3:30 PM ET · Athens, GAFINALMRSH 7–45 UGAMRSHMarshall@UGA#5 Georgia10%90%
3:30 PM ET · Tallahassee, FLFINALALA 17–31 FSUALA#8 Alabama@FSUFlorida State83%17%
3:30 PM ET · Ames, IAFINALSDAK 7–55 ISUSDAKSouth Dakota@ISU#22 Iowa State7%93%
3:30 PM ET · DeKalb, ILFINALHC 17–19 NIUHCHoly Cross@NIUNorthern Illinois20%80%
3:30 PM ET · Colorado Springs, COFINALBUCK 13–49 AFBUCKBucknell@AFAir Force6%94%
3:30 PM ET · Hadley, MAFINALTEM 42–10 MASSTEMTemple@MASSMassachusetts50%50%
4:00 PM ET · Eugene, ORFINALMTST 13–59 OREMTSTMontana State@ORE#7 Oregon3%97%
4:00 PM ET · Lynchburg, VAFINALME 7–28 LIBMEMaine@LIBLiberty5%95%
4:15 PM ET · Fayetteville, ARFINALAAMU 7–52 ARKAAMUAlabama A&M@ARKArkansas2%98%
4:30 PM ET · Memphis, TNFINALUTC 10–45 MEMUTCChattanooga@MEMMemphis7%93%
6:00 PM ET · Norman, OKFINALILST 3–35 OUILSTIllinois State@OU#18 Oklahoma2%98%
6:00 PM ET · Harrisonburg, VAFINALWEB 10–45 JMUWEBWeber State@JMUJames Madison4%96%
6:00 PM ET · Iowa City, IAFINALUALB 7–34 IOWAUALBUAlbany@IOWAIowa2%98%
6:00 PM ET · Charlottesville, VAFINALCCU 7–48 UVACCUCoastal Carolina@UVAVirginia38%62%
7:00 PM ET · Gainesville, FLFINALLIU 0–55 FLALIULong Island University@FLA#15 Florida2%98%
7:00 PM ET · Manhattan, KSFINALUND 35–38 KSUUNDNorth Dakota@KSU#17 Kansas State2%98%
7:00 PM ET · College Station, TXFINALUTSA 24–42 TA&MUTSAUTSA@TA&M#19 Texas A&M14%86%
7:00 PM ET · Jonesboro, ARFINALSEMO 24–42 ARSTSEMOSoutheast Missouri State@ARSTArkansas State17%83%
7:00 PM ET · Murfreesboro, TNFINALAPSU 34–14 MTSUAPSUAustin Peay@MTSUMiddle Tennessee29%71%
7:00 PM ET · Troy, ALFINALNICH 20–38 TROYNICHNicholls@TROYTroy13%87%
7:00 PM ET · Mobile, ALFINALMORG 21–38 USAMORGMorgan State@USASouth Alabama6%94%
7:00 PM ET · Nashville, TNFINALCHSO 3–45 VANCHSOCharleston Southern@VANVanderbilt2%98%
7:00 PM ET · Bowling Green, KYFINALUNA 6–55 WKUUNANorth Alabama@WKUWestern Kentucky8%92%
7:30 PM ET · Clemson, SCFINALLSU 17–10 CLEMLSU#9 LSU@CLEM#4 Clemson44%56%
7:30 PM ET · Ann Arbor, MIFINALUNM 17–34 MICHUNMNew Mexico@MICH#14 Michigan9%91%
7:30 PM ET · Lubbock, TXFINALUAPB 7–67 TTUUAPBArkansas-Pine Bluff@TTU#23 Texas Tech2%98%
7:30 PM ET · Logan, UTFINALUTEP 16–28 USUUTEPUTEP@USUUtah State35%65%
7:30 PM ET · Los Angeles, CAFINALMOST 13–73 USCMOSTMissouri State@USCUSC2%98%
7:30 PM ET · Ruston, LAFINALSELA 0–24 LTSELASE Louisiana@LTLouisiana Tech15%85%
7:45 PM ET · Oxford, MSFINALGAST 7–63 MISSGASTGeorgia State@MISS#21 Ole Miss5%95%
8:00 PM ET · Tulsa, OKFINALACU 7–35 TLSAACUAbilene Christian@TLSATulsa41%59%
8:00 PM ET · Denton, TXFINALLAM 0–51 UNTLAMLamar@UNTNorth Texas10%90%
8:00 PM ET · Lafayette, LAFINALRICE 14–12 ULRICERice@ULLouisiana29%71%
8:00 PM ET · Provo, UTFINALPRST 0–69 BYUPRSTPortland State@BYUBYU2%98%
8:00 PM ET · San Marcos, TXFINALEMU 27–52 TXSTEMUEastern Michigan@TXSTTexas State12%88%
9:00 PM ET · University Park, TXFINALETAM 13–42 SMUETAMEast Texas A&M@SMU#16 SMU2%98%
9:00 PM ET · Las Cruces, NMFINALBRY 3–19 NMSUBRYBryant@NMSUNew Mexico State16%84%
9:30 PM ET · Fresno, CAFINALGASO 14–42 FRESGASOGeorgia Southern@FRESFresno State44%56%
10:00 PM ET · Tempe, AZFINALNAU 19–38 ASUNAUNorthern Arizona@ASU#11 Arizona State2%98%
10:00 PM ET · Pullman, WAFINALIDHO 10–13 WSUIDHOIdaho@WSUWashington State19%81%
10:30 PM ET · Corvallis, ORFINALCAL 34–15 ORSTCALCalifornia@ORSTOregon State63%37%
10:30 PM ET · Tucson, AZFINALHAW 6–40 ARIZHAWHawai'i@ARIZArizona32%68%
11:00 PM ET · Pasadena, CAFINALUTAH 43–10 UCLAUTAHUtah@UCLAUCLA46%54%
11:00 PM ET · Seattle, WAFINALCSU 21–38 WASHCSUColorado State@WASHWashington20%80%
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