Saturday

Saturday

Browse this week's slate

Every live game, tracked against the call

METHODOLOGY & ACCURACY

How the model works, and whether it does

See where every team stands, replay 2025

Who makes the twelve-team field

What we said, what happened, and where we split from the market

Every projection, week by week, as a CSV

BEAT SATURDAYSOON

Your call against the projected margin

DATA AS OF OCT 6 · 12:37 PM ET

ANALYTICAL INSTRUMENT · NOT BETTING ADVICE

LEGAL PRIVACY TERMS

Week 1 Predictions · 2026

Every game of the 2026 Week 1 slate, with the win probability and projected score Saturday set before kickoff, next to the final score. Every number here was set before kickoff, on nothing but the games already played. Open any game for its full range of outcomes.

ALL GAMES

91 GAMES

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 311 GAMES

6:00 PM ET · Piscataway, NJFINALMASS 37–21 RUTG6:00 PM ETPiscataway, NJMassachusetts@RutgersFINALMASS 37–21 RUTG2%98%

7:00 PM ET · Kennesaw, GAFINALWGA 0–47 KENN7:00 PM ETKennesaw, GAWest Georgia@Kennesaw StateFINALWGA 0–47 KENN15%85%

7:00 PM ET · Newark, DEFINALMRMK 7–42 DEL7:00 PM ETNewark, DEMerrimack@DelawareFINALMRMK 7–42 DEL6%94%

7:00 PM ET · Orlando, FLFINALBCU 6–73 UCF7:00 PM ETOrlando, FLBethune-Cookman@UCFFINALBCU 6–73 UCF2%98%

7:00 PM ET · Amherst, NYFINALUALB 17–21 BUF7:00 PM ETAmherst, NYUAlbany@BuffaloFINALUALB 17–21 BUF14%86%

7:00 PM ET · Winston-Salem, NCFINALAKR 16–38 WAKE7:00 PM ETWinston-Salem, NCAkron@Wake ForestFINALAKR 16–38 WAKE11%89%

8:00 PM ET · Columbia, MOFINALUAPB 14–54 MIZ8:00 PM ETColumbia, MOArkansas-Pine Bluff@#25 MissouriFINALUAPB 14–54 MIZ2%98%

8:00 PM ET · Atlanta, GAFINALCOLO 14–13 GT8:00 PM ETAtlanta, GAColorado@Georgia TechFINALCOLO 14–13 GT33%67%

8:00 PM ET · Minneapolis, MNFINALEIU 7–59 MINN8:00 PM ETMinneapolis, MNEastern Illinois@MinnesotaFINALEIU 7–59 MINN2%98%

9:00 PM ET · Salt Lake City, UTFINALIDHO 14–66 UTAH9:00 PM ETSalt Lake City, UTIdaho@#21 UtahFINALIDHO 14–66 UTAH2%98%

9:00 PM ET · Champaign, ILFINALUAB 23–42 ILL9:00 PM ETChampaign, ILUAB@IllinoisFINALUAB 23–42 ILL6%94%

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 48 GAMES

6:30 PM ET · Ypsilanti, MIFINALSJSU 27–21 EMU6:30 PM ETYpsilanti, MISan José State@Eastern MichiganFINALSJSU 27–21 EMU48%52%

7:00 PM ET · Atlanta, GAFINALNCAT 10–59 GAST7:00 PM ETAtlanta, GANorth Carolina A&T@Georgia StateFINALNCAT 10–59 GAST7%93%

7:00 PM ET · West Lafayette, INFINALINST 19–44 PUR7:00 PM ETWest Lafayette, INIndiana State@PurdueFINALINST 19–44 PUR3%97%

8:00 PM ET · Norman, OKFINALUTEP 0–51 OU8:00 PM ETNorman, OKUTEP@#10 OklahomaFINALUTEP 0–51 OU2%98%

8:00 PM ET · East Lansing, MIFINALTOL 20–30 MSU8:00 PM ETEast Lansing, MIToledo@Michigan StateFINALTOL 20–30 MSU33%67%

8:00 PM ET · Lawrence, KSFINALLIU 6–51 KU8:00 PM ETLawrence, KSLong Island University@KansasFINALLIU 6–51 KU2%98%

9:00 PM ET · Stanford, CAFINALMIA 45–6 STAN9:00 PM ETStanford, CA#7 Miami@StanfordFINALMIA 45–6 STAN92%8%

9:00 PM ET · Los Angeles, CAFINALFRES 0–39 USC9:00 PM ETLos Angeles, CAFresno State@#14 USCFINALFRES 0–39 USC15%85%

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 568 GAMES

12:00 PM ET · Bloomington, INFINALUNT 16–52 IU12:00 PM ETBloomington, INNorth Texas@#6 IndianaFINALUNT 16–52 IU2%98%

12:00 PM ET · Tuscaloosa, ALFINALECU 10–48 ALA12:00 PM ETTuscaloosa, ALEast Carolina@#13 AlabamaFINALECU 10–48 ALA8%92%

12:00 PM ET · Houston, TXFINALORST 20–33 HOU12:00 PM ETHouston, TXOregon State@#23 HoustonFINALORST 20–33 HOU13%87%

12:00 PM ET · East Hartford, CTFINALLAF 7–56 CONN12:00 PM ETEast Hartford, CTLafayette@UConnFINALLAF 7–56 CONN12%88%

12:00 PM ET · Harrisonburg, VAFINALLIB 13–20 JMU12:00 PM ETBattle of the Blue RidgeBattle of the Blue RidgeLiberty@James MadisonRIVALRYFINALLIB 13–20 JMU29%71%

12:00 PM ET · Bowling Green, OHFINALTAR 20–13 BGSU12:00 PM ETBowling Green, OHTarleton State@Bowling GreenFINALTAR 20–13 BGSU57%43%

12:00 PM ET · West Point, NYFINALBRY 3–59 ARMY12:00 PM ETWest Point, NYBryant@ArmyFINALBRY 3–59 ARMY5%95%

12:00 PM ET · Syracuse, NYFINALUNH 3–66 SYR12:00 PM ETSyracuse, NYNew Hampshire@SyracuseFINALUNH 3–66 SYR4%96%

12:00 PM ET · Morgantown, WVFINALCCU 24–31 WVU12:00 PM ETMorgantown, WVCoastal Carolina@West VirginiaFINALCCU 24–31 WVU14%86%

12:00 PM ET · Lincoln, NEFINALOHIO 21–49 NEB12:00 PM ETLincoln, NEOhio@NebraskaFINALOHIO 21–49 NEB11%89%

12:30 PM ET · Columbus, OHFINALBALL 3–56 OSU12:30 PM ETColumbus, OHBall State@#1 Ohio StateFINALBALL 3–56 OSU2%98%

12:30 PM ET · Pittsburgh, PAFINALM-OH 14–59 PITT12:30 PM ETPittsburgh, PAMiami (OH)@PittsburghFINALM-OH 14–59 PITT16%84%

12:45 PM ET · Columbia, SCFINALKENT 0–57 SC12:45 PM ETColumbia, SCKent State@South CarolinaFINALKENT 0–57 SC2%98%

1:00 PM ET · Ames, IAFINALSEMO 10–38 ISU1:00 PM ETAmes, IASoutheast Missouri State@Iowa StateFINALSEMO 10–38 ISU3%97%

1:00 PM ET · Colorado Springs, COFINALDUQ 0–34 AF1:00 PM ETColorado Springs, CODuquesne@Air ForceFINALDUQ 0–34 AF10%90%

1:00 PM ET · Lexington, KYFINALYSU 13–45 UK1:00 PM ETLexington, KYYoungstown State@KentuckyFINALYSU 13–45 UK6%94%

2:00 PM ET · Philadelphia, PAFINALURI 14–38 TEM2:00 PM ETPhiladelphia, PARhode Island@TempleFINALURI 14–38 TEM23%77%

3:00 PM ET · Athens, GAFINALTNST 3–63 UGA3:00 PM ETAthens, GATennessee State@#3 GeorgiaFINALTNST 3–63 UGA2%98%

3:30 PM ET · Eugene, ORFINALBOIS 27–34 ORE3:30 PM ETEugene, ORBoise State@#2 OregonFINALBOIS 27–34 ORE7%93%

3:30 PM ET · Austin, TXFINALTXST 7–59 TEX3:30 PM ETAustin, TXTexas State@#5 TexasFINALTXST 7–59 TEX6%94%

3:30 PM ET · University Park, PAFINALMRSH 0–45 PSU3:30 PM ETUniversity Park, PAMarshall@#18 Penn StateFINALMRSH 0–45 PSU9%91%

3:30 PM ET · Knoxville, TNFINALFUR 9–56 TENN3:30 PM ETKnoxville, TNFurman@#20 TennesseeFINALFUR 9–56 TENN2%98%

3:30 PM ET · Charlotte, NCFINALCIT 43–41 CLT3:30 PM ETCharlotte, NCThe Citadel@CharlotteFINALCIT 43–41 CLT23%77%

3:30 PM ET · Annapolis, MDFINALTOW 15–42 NAVY3:30 PM ETAnnapolis, MDTowson@NavyFINALTOW 15–42 NAVY6%94%

3:30 PM ET · Cincinnati, OHFINALBC 15–34 CIN3:30 PM ETCincinnati, OHBoston College@CincinnatiFINALBC 15–34 CIN28%72%

3:30 PM ET · Fargo, NDFINALFOR 0–38 NDSU3:30 PM ETFargo, NDFordham@North Dakota StateFINALFOR 0–38 NDSU3%97%

3:30 PM ET · San Antonio, TXFINALRGV 16–45 UTSA3:30 PM ETSan Antonio, TXUT Rio Grande Valley@UTSAFINALRGV 16–45 UTSA9%91%

3:30 PM ET · Atlanta, GAFINALBAY 16–17 AUB3:30 PM ETAtlanta, GABaylorVSAuburnFINALBAY 16–17 AUB33%67%

3:30 PM ET · Durham, NCFINALTULN 3–17 DUKE3:30 PM ETDurham, NCTulane@DukeFINALTULN 3–17 DUKE31%69%

3:30 PM ET · Boone, NCFINALME 3–55 APP3:30 PM ETBoone, NCMaine@App StateFINALME 3–55 APP15%85%

3:45 PM ET · Tulsa, OKFINALOKST 10–24 TLSA3:45 PM ETTulsa, OKOklahoma State@TulsaFINALOKST 10–24 TLSA70%30%

4:15 PM ET · Iowa City, IAFINALNIU 0–40 IOWA4:15 PM ETIowa City, IANorthern Illinois@#22 IowaFINALNIU 0–40 IOWA3%97%

4:15 PM ET · Fayetteville, ARFINALUNA 14–31 ARK4:15 PM ETFayetteville, ARNorth Alabama@ArkansasFINALUNA 14–31 ARK2%98%

5:00 PM ET · Hattiesburg, MSFINALALCN 3–49 USM5:00 PM ETHattiesburg, MSAlcorn State@Southern MissFINALALCN 3–49 USM19%81%

6:00 PM ET · Fort Collins, COFINALWYO 13–35 CSU6:00 PM ETBorder WarBorder WarWyoming@Colorado StateRIVALRYFINALWYO 13–35 CSU36%64%

6:00 PM ET · Norfolk, VAFINALNORF 10–31 ODU6:00 PM ETNorfolk, VANorfolk State@Old DominionFINALNORF 10–31 ODU3%97%

7:00 PM ET · College Station, TXFINALMOST 0–50 TA&M7:00 PM ETCollege Station, TXMissouri State@#8 Texas A&MFINALMOST 0–50 TA&M2%98%

7:00 PM ET · Lubbock, TXFINALACU 10–33 TTU7:00 PM ETLubbock, TXAbilene Christian@#12 Texas TechFINALACU 10–33 TTU2%98%

7:00 PM ET · Houston, TXFINALHCU 3–31 RICE7:00 PM ETHouston, TXHouston Christian@RiceFINALHCU 3–31 RICE11%89%

7:00 PM ET · Jacksonville, ALFINALEKU 7–49 JXST7:00 PM ETJacksonville, ALEastern Kentucky@Jacksonville StateFINALEKU 7–49 JXST11%89%

7:00 PM ET · Logan, UTFINALIDST 29–17 USU7:00 PM ETLogan, UTIdaho State@Utah StateFINALIDST 29–17 USU12%88%

7:00 PM ET · Murfreesboro, TNFINALMUR 14–38 MTSU7:00 PM ETMurfreesboro, TNMurray State@Middle TennesseeFINALMUR 14–38 MTSU12%88%

7:00 PM ET · Tampa, FLFINALFIU 9–19 USF7:00 PM ETTampa, FLFlorida International@South FloridaFINALFIU 9–19 USF16%84%

7:00 PM ET · Statesboro, GAFINALCHSO 0–31 GASO7:00 PM ETStatesboro, GACharleston Southern@Georgia SouthernFINALCHSO 0–31 GASO11%89%

7:00 PM ET · Nashville, TNFINALAPSU 9–28 VAN7:00 PM ETNashville, TNAustin Peay@VanderbiltFINALAPSU 9–28 VAN3%97%

7:00 PM ET · Mobile, ALFINALSELA 14–39 USA7:00 PM ETMobile, ALSE Louisiana@South AlabamaFINALSELA 14–39 USA18%82%

7:00 PM ET · Memphis, TNFINALARST 24–42 MEM7:00 PM ETPaint Bucket BowlPaint Bucket BowlArkansas State@MemphisRIVALRYFINALARST 24–42 MEM22%78%

7:00 PM ET · Manhattan, KSFINALNICH 3–71 KSU7:00 PM ETManhattan, KSNicholls@Kansas StateFINALNICH 3–71 KSU2%98%

7:00 PM ET · Troy, ALFINALSHSU 21–24 TROY7:00 PM ETTroy, ALSam Houston@TroyFINALSHSU 21–24 TROY17%83%

7:30 PM ET · Baton Rouge, LAFINALCLEM 10–51 LSU7:30 PM ETBaton Rouge, LAClemson@#11 LSUFINALCLEM 10–51 LSU21%79%

7:30 PM ET · Ann Arbor, MIFINALWMU 12–13 MICH7:30 PM ETAnn Arbor, MIWestern Michigan@#16 MichiganFINALWMU 12–13 MICH7%93%

7:30 PM ET · Blacksburg, VAFINALVMI 3–73 VT7:30 PM ETBlacksburg, VAVMI@Virginia TechFINALVMI 3–73 VT2%98%

7:30 PM ET · Ruston, LAFINALNWST 6–80 LT7:30 PM ETRuston, LANorthwestern State@Louisiana TechFINALNWST 6–80 LT2%98%

7:30 PM ET · Starkville, MSFINALULM 13–62 MSST7:30 PM ETStarkville, MSUL Monroe@Mississippi StateFINALULM 13–62 MSST5%95%

7:45 PM ET · Gainesville, FLFINALFAU 21–66 FLA7:45 PM ETGainesville, FLFlorida Atlantic@FloridaFINALFAU 21–66 FLA6%94%

8:00 PM ET · Provo, UTFINALUTU 7–63 BYU8:00 PM ETProvo, UTUtah Tech@#14 BYUFINALUTU 7–63 BYU2%98%

8:00 PM ET · Evanston, ILFINALSDST 18–34 NU8:00 PM ETEvanston, ILSouth Dakota State@NorthwesternFINALSDST 18–34 NU7%93%

8:00 PM ET · Lafayette, LAFINALLAM 7–38 UL8:00 PM ETLafayette, LALamar@LouisianaFINALLAM 7–38 UL16%84%

8:00 PM ET · College Park, MDFINALHAMP 0–62 MD8:00 PM ETCollege Park, MDHampton@MarylandFINALHAMP 0–62 MD2%98%

9:00 PM ET · Las Cruces, NMFINALMERC 14–51 NMSU9:00 PM ETLas Cruces, NMMercyhurst@New Mexico StateFINALMERC 14–51 NMSU10%90%

9:30 PM ET · San Diego, CAFINALPRST 20–53 SDSU9:30 PM ETSan Diego, CAPortland State@San Diego StateFINALPRST 20–53 SDSU2%98%

9:30 PM ET · Tucson, AZFINALNAU 7–35 ARIZ9:30 PM ETTucson, AZNorthern Arizona@ArizonaFINALNAU 7–35 ARIZ2%98%

10:00 PM ET · Sacramento, CAFINALMVSU 0–52 SAC10:00 PM ETSacramento, CAMississippi Valley State@Sacramento StateFINALMVSU 0–52 SAC7%93%

10:00 PM ET · Albuquerque, NMFINALCMU 7–38 UNM10:00 PM ETAlbuquerque, NMCentral Michigan@New MexicoFINALCMU 7–38 UNM27%73%

10:00 PM ET · Honolulu, HIFINALUNLV 21–6 HAW10:00 PM ETHonolulu, HIUNLV@Hawai'iFINALUNLV 21–6 HAW49%51%

10:00 PM ET · Tempe, AZFINALMORG 7–70 ASU10:00 PM ETTempe, AZMorgan State@Arizona StateFINALMORG 7–70 ASU2%98%

10:30 PM ET · Reno, NVFINALWKU 14–49 NEV10:30 PM ETReno, NVWestern Kentucky@NevadaFINALWKU 14–49 NEV67%33%

10:30 PM ET · Berkeley, CAFINALUCLA 45–24 CAL10:30 PM ETBerkeley, CAUCLA@CaliforniaFINALUCLA 45–24 CAL51%49%

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 63 GAMES

4:00 PM ET · Seattle, WAFINALWSU 10–24 WASH4:00 PM ETApple CupApple CupWashington State@#17 WashingtonRIVALRYFINALWSU 10–24 WASH14%86%

7:30 PM ET · Greenbay, WIFINALWIS 13–41 ND7:30 PM ETGreenbay, WIWisconsinVS#4 Notre DameFINALWIS 13–41 ND14%86%

7:30 PM ET · Nashville, TNFINALLOU 38–41 MISS7:30 PM ETNashville, TN#24 LouisvilleVS#9 Ole MissFINALLOU 38–41 MISS35%65%

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 71 GAME

7:30 PM ET · Tallahassee, FLFINALSMU 27–24 FSU7:30 PM ETTallahassee, FL#19 SMU@Florida StateFINALSMU 27–24 FSU60%40%

< BACK TO GAMES