Saturday

Saturday

Browse this week's slate

METHODOLOGY & ACCURACY

How the model works, and whether it does

See where every team stands, replay 2025

Who makes the twelve-team field

What we said, what happened, and where we split from the market

BEAT SATURDAYSOON

Your call against the projected margin

DATA AS OF AUG 22 · 2:29 PM ET

ANALYTICAL INSTRUMENT · NOT BETTING ADVICE

LEGAL PRIVACY TERMS

Week 1 Predictions · 2026

Every game on the 2026 Week 1 slate, with Saturday's win probability and projected score for each one. The numbers come from one rating per team, fit on scoring margin from the games played before each kickoff, with no foresight. Open any game for its full range of outcomes.

ALL GAMES

91 GAMES

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 311 GAMES

6:00 PM ET · Piscataway, NJRUTG BY 28.46:00 PM ETPiscataway, NJMassachusetts@RutgersRUTG BY 28.46%94%

7:00 PM ET · Winston-Salem, NCWAKE BY 22.47:00 PM ETWinston-Salem, NCAkron@Wake ForestWAKE BY 22.411%89%

7:00 PM ET · Orlando, FLUCF BY 39.17:00 PM ETOrlando, FLBethune-Cookman@UCFUCF BY 39.12%98%

7:00 PM ET · Amherst, NYBUF BY 27.57:00 PM ETAmherst, NYUAlbany@BuffaloBUF BY 27.57%93%

7:00 PM ET · Kennesaw, GAKENN BY 19.17:00 PM ETKennesaw, GAWest Georgia@Kennesaw StateKENN BY 19.115%85%

7:00 PM ET · Newark, DEDEL BY 28.47:00 PM ETNewark, DEMerrimack@DelawareDEL BY 28.46%94%

8:00 PM ET · Columbia, MOMIZ BY 55.28:00 PM ETColumbia, MOArkansas-Pine Bluff@#25 MissouriMIZ BY 55.22%98%

8:00 PM ET · Minneapolis, MNMINN BY 45.08:00 PM ETMinneapolis, MNEastern Illinois@MinnesotaMINN BY 45.02%98%

8:00 PM ET · Atlanta, GAGT BY 8.28:00 PM ETAtlanta, GAColorado@Georgia TechGT BY 8.233%67%

9:00 PM ET · Salt Lake City, UTUTAH BY 43.09:00 PM ETSalt Lake City, UTIdaho@#21 UtahUTAH BY 43.02%98%

9:00 PM ET · Champaign, ILILL BY 17.29:00 PM ETChampaign, ILUAB@IllinoisILL BY 17.218%82%

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 48 GAMES

6:30 PM ET · Ypsilanti, MIEMU BY 1.06:30 PM ETYpsilanti, MISan José State@Eastern MichiganEMU BY 1.048%52%

7:00 PM ET · West Lafayette, INPUR BY 36.27:00 PM ETWest Lafayette, INIndiana State@PurduePUR BY 36.23%97%

7:00 PM ET · Atlanta, GAGAST BY 31.17:00 PM ETAtlanta, GANorth Carolina A&T@Georgia StateGAST BY 31.15%95%

8:00 PM ET · Norman, OKOU BY 30.48:00 PM ETNorman, OKUTEP@#10 OklahomaOU BY 30.45%95%

8:00 PM ET · Lawrence, KSKU BY 39.08:00 PM ETLawrence, KSLong Island University@KansasKU BY 39.02%98%

8:00 PM ET · East Lansing, MITOL BY 1.98:00 PM ETEast Lansing, MIToledo@Michigan StateTOL BY 1.954%46%

9:00 PM ET · Stanford, CAMIA BY 16.79:00 PM ETStanford, CA#7 Miami@StanfordMIA BY 16.781%19%

9:00 PM ET · Los Angeles, CAUSC BY 22.49:00 PM ETLos Angeles, CAFresno State@#14 USCUSC BY 22.411%89%

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 568 GAMES

12:00 PM ET · Bloomington, INIU BY 19.812:00 PM ETBloomington, INNorth Texas@#6 IndianaIU BY 19.814%86%

12:00 PM ET · Tuscaloosa, ALALA BY 15.412:00 PM ETTuscaloosa, ALEast Carolina@#13 AlabamaALA BY 15.420%80%

12:00 PM ET · Houston, TXHOU BY 12.212:00 PM ETHouston, TXOregon State@#23 HoustonHOU BY 12.226%74%

12:00 PM ET · Syracuse, NYSYR BY 27.712:00 PM ETSyracuse, NYNew Hampshire@SyracuseSYR BY 27.77%93%

12:00 PM ET · Bowling Green, OHBGSU BY 1.512:00 PM ETBowling Green, OHTarleton State@Bowling GreenBGSU BY 1.547%53%

12:00 PM ET · West Point, NYARMY BY 37.812:00 PM ETWest Point, NYBryant@ArmyARMY BY 37.83%97%

12:00 PM ET · Harrisonburg, VAJMU BY 15.312:00 PM ETBattle of the Blue RidgeBattle of the Blue RidgeLiberty@James MadisonRIVALRYJMU BY 15.321%79%

12:00 PM ET · Morgantown, WVWVU BY 11.612:00 PM ETMorgantown, WVCoastal Carolina@West VirginiaWVU BY 11.627%73%

12:00 PM ET · Lincoln, NENEB BY 9.612:00 PM ETLincoln, NEOhio@NebraskaNEB BY 9.630%70%

12:00 PM ET · East Hartford, CTCONN BY 24.012:00 PM ETEast Hartford, CTLafayette@UConnCONN BY 24.010%90%

12:30 PM ET · Columbus, OHOSU BY 44.812:30 PM ETColumbus, OHBall State@#1 Ohio StateOSU BY 44.82%98%

12:30 PM ET · Pittsburgh, PAPITT BY 14.612:30 PM ETPittsburgh, PAMiami (OH)@PittsburghPITT BY 14.622%78%

12:45 PM ET · Columbia, SCSC BY 24.912:45 PM ETColumbia, SCKent State@South CarolinaSC BY 24.99%91%

1:00 PM ET · Colorado Springs, COAF BY 28.21:00 PM ETColorado Springs, CODuquesne@Air ForceAF BY 28.26%94%

1:00 PM ET · Lexington, KYUK BY 30.01:00 PM ETLexington, KYYoungstown State@KentuckyUK BY 30.05%95%

1:00 PM ET · Ames, IAISU BY 37.41:00 PM ETAmes, IASoutheast Missouri State@Iowa StateISU BY 37.43%97%

2:00 PM ET · Philadelphia, PATEM BY 18.92:00 PM ETPhiladelphia, PARhode Island@TempleTEM BY 18.915%85%

3:00 PM ET · Athens, GAUGA BY 61.23:00 PM ETAthens, GATennessee State@#3 GeorgiaUGA BY 61.22%98%

3:30 PM ET · Eugene, ORORE BY 21.33:30 PM ETEugene, ORBoise State@#2 OregonORE BY 21.313%87%

3:30 PM ET · Austin, TXTEX BY 14.73:30 PM ETAustin, TXTexas State@#5 TexasTEX BY 14.722%78%

3:30 PM ET · University Park, PAPSU BY 17.73:30 PM ETUniversity Park, PAMarshall@#18 Penn StatePSU BY 17.717%83%

3:30 PM ET · Knoxville, TNTENN BY 48.43:30 PM ETKnoxville, TNFurman@#20 TennesseeTENN BY 48.42%98%

3:30 PM ET · Durham, NCDUKE BY 1.43:30 PM ETDurham, NCTulane@DukeDUKE BY 1.447%53%

3:30 PM ET · San Antonio, TXUTSA BY 28.03:30 PM ETSan Antonio, TXUT Rio Grande Valley@UTSAUTSA BY 28.07%93%

3:30 PM ET · Fargo, NDNDSU BY 33.03:30 PM ETFargo, NDFordham@North Dakota StateNDSU BY 33.04%96%

3:30 PM ET · Annapolis, MDNAVY BY 31.63:30 PM ETAnnapolis, MDTowson@NavyNAVY BY 31.64%96%

3:30 PM ET · Cincinnati, OHCIN BY 11.93:30 PM ETCincinnati, OHBoston College@CincinnatiCIN BY 11.926%74%

3:30 PM ET · Boone, NCAPP BY 23.73:30 PM ETBoone, NCMaine@App StateAPP BY 23.710%90%

3:30 PM ET · Atlanta, GAAUB BY 5.53:30 PM ETAtlanta, GABaylorVSAuburnAUB BY 5.538%62%

3:30 PM ET · Charlotte, NCCLT BY 13.73:30 PM ETCharlotte, NCThe Citadel@CharlotteCLT BY 13.723%77%

3:45 PM ET · Tulsa, OKTLSA BY 2.13:45 PM ETTulsa, OKOklahoma State@TulsaTLSA BY 2.146%54%

4:15 PM ET · Iowa City, IAIOWA BY 27.44:15 PM ETIowa City, IANorthern Illinois@#22 IowaIOWA BY 27.47%93%

4:15 PM ET · Fayetteville, ARARK BY 41.44:15 PM ETFayetteville, ARNorth Alabama@ArkansasARK BY 41.42%98%

5:00 PM ET · Hattiesburg, MSUSM BY 23.65:00 PM ETHattiesburg, MSAlcorn State@Southern MissUSM BY 23.610%90%

6:00 PM ET · Fort Collins, COCSU BY 3.46:00 PM ETBorder WarBorder WarWyoming@Colorado StateRIVALRYCSU BY 3.443%57%

6:00 PM ET · Norfolk, VAODU BY 42.36:00 PM ETNorfolk, VANorfolk State@Old DominionODU BY 42.32%98%

7:00 PM ET · College Station, TXTA&M BY 26.97:00 PM ETCollege Station, TXMissouri State@#8 Texas A&MTA&M BY 26.97%93%

7:00 PM ET · Lubbock, TXTTU BY 46.47:00 PM ETLubbock, TXAbilene Christian@#12 Texas TechTTU BY 46.42%98%

7:00 PM ET · Mobile, ALUSA BY 15.37:00 PM ETMobile, ALSE Louisiana@South AlabamaUSA BY 15.321%79%

7:00 PM ET · Manhattan, KSKSU BY 42.27:00 PM ETManhattan, KSNicholls@Kansas StateKSU BY 42.22%98%

7:00 PM ET · Murfreesboro, TNMTSU BY 22.77:00 PM ETMurfreesboro, TNMurray State@Middle TennesseeMTSU BY 22.711%89%

7:00 PM ET · Tampa, FLUSF BY 17.87:00 PM ETTampa, FLFlorida International@South FloridaUSF BY 17.817%83%

7:00 PM ET · Logan, UTUSU BY 25.57:00 PM ETLogan, UTIdaho State@Utah StateUSU BY 25.59%91%

7:00 PM ET · Statesboro, GAGASO BY 26.67:00 PM ETStatesboro, GACharleston Southern@Georgia SouthernGASO BY 26.68%92%

7:00 PM ET · Nashville, TNVAN BY 34.67:00 PM ETNashville, TNAustin Peay@VanderbiltVAN BY 34.63%97%

7:00 PM ET · Houston, TXRICE BY 30.47:00 PM ETHouston, TXHouston Christian@RiceRICE BY 30.45%95%

7:00 PM ET · Troy, ALTROY BY 15.97:00 PM ETTroy, ALSam Houston@TroyTROY BY 15.920%80%

7:00 PM ET · Jacksonville, ALJXST BY 26.87:00 PM ETJacksonville, ALEastern Kentucky@Jacksonville StateJXST BY 26.87%93%

7:00 PM ET · Memphis, TNMEM BY 14.77:00 PM ETPaint Bucket BowlPaint Bucket BowlArkansas State@MemphisRIVALRYMEM BY 14.721%79%

7:30 PM ET · Baton Rouge, LALSU BY 5.57:30 PM ETBaton Rouge, LAClemson@#11 LSULSU BY 5.538%62%

7:30 PM ET · Ann Arbor, MIMICH BY 18.47:30 PM ETAnn Arbor, MIWestern Michigan@#16 MichiganMICH BY 18.416%84%

7:30 PM ET · Blacksburg, VAVT BY 51.67:30 PM ETBlacksburg, VAVMI@Virginia TechVT BY 51.62%98%

7:30 PM ET · Ruston, LALT BY 40.77:30 PM ETRuston, LANorthwestern State@Louisiana TechLT BY 40.72%98%

7:30 PM ET · Starkville, MSMSST BY 18.87:30 PM ETStarkville, MSUL Monroe@Mississippi StateMSST BY 18.816%84%

7:45 PM ET · Gainesville, FLFLA BY 15.57:45 PM ETGainesville, FLFlorida Atlantic@FloridaFLA BY 15.520%80%

8:00 PM ET · Provo, UTBYU BY 50.88:00 PM ETProvo, UTUtah Tech@#14 BYUBYU BY 50.82%98%

8:00 PM ET · Lafayette, LAUL BY 22.98:00 PM ETLafayette, LALamar@LouisianaUL BY 22.911%89%

8:00 PM ET · College Park, MDMD BY 49.08:00 PM ETCollege Park, MDHampton@MarylandMD BY 49.02%98%

8:00 PM ET · Evanston, ILNU BY 27.58:00 PM ETEvanston, ILSouth Dakota State@NorthwesternNU BY 27.57%93%

9:00 PM ET · Las Cruces, NMNMSU BY 22.69:00 PM ETLas Cruces, NMMercyhurst@New Mexico StateNMSU BY 22.611%89%

9:00 PM ET · Tempe, AZASU BY 43.29:00 PM ETTempe, AZMorgan State@Arizona StateASU BY 43.22%98%

9:30 PM ET · Tucson, AZARIZ BY 37.39:30 PM ETTucson, AZNorthern Arizona@ArizonaARIZ BY 37.33%97%

9:30 PM ET · San Diego, CASDSU BY 43.89:30 PM ETSan Diego, CAPortland State@San Diego StateSDSU BY 43.82%98%

10:00 PM ET · Honolulu, HIUNLV BY 1.210:00 PM ETHonolulu, HIUNLV@Hawai'iUNLV BY 1.253%47%

10:00 PM ET · Sacramento, CASAC BY 23.410:00 PM ETSacramento, CAMississippi Valley State@Sacramento StateSAC BY 23.410%90%

10:00 PM ET · Albuquerque, NMUNM BY 9.610:00 PM ETAlbuquerque, NMCentral Michigan@New MexicoUNM BY 9.630%70%

10:30 PM ET · Reno, NVWKU BY 4.010:30 PM ETReno, NVWestern Kentucky@NevadaWKU BY 4.058%42%

10:30 PM ET · Berkeley, CAUCLA BY 1.210:30 PM ETBerkeley, CAUCLA@CaliforniaUCLA BY 1.253%47%

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 63 GAMES

4:00 PM ET · Seattle, WAWASH BY 15.24:00 PM ETApple CupApple CupWashington State@#17 WashingtonRIVALRYWASH BY 15.221%79%

7:30 PM ET · Greenbay, WIND BY 19.37:30 PM ETGreenbay, WIWisconsinVS#4 Notre DameND BY 19.315%85%

7:30 PM ET · Nashville, TNMISS BY 6.17:30 PM ETNashville, TN#24 LouisvilleVS#9 Ole MissMISS BY 6.137%63%

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 71 GAME

7:30 PM ET · Tallahassee, FLSMU BY 1.37:30 PM ETTallahassee, FL#19 SMU@Florida StateSMU BY 1.353%47%

Later weeks open as the season reaches them. A team's full schedule, all the way through, is on its own page.

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