No. 3
The team that never covers doesn’t exist. Almost.
how often the worst-covering teams of one season covered the next season
| Team | 2013 to 2019 | 2021 to 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers | −4.2 | −2.3 | 36-43-0 then 27-30-3 |
| Maryland | −4.0 | −3.3 | 35-43-0 then 26-36-0 |
| Texas State | −3.5 | −0.4 | 32-44-1 then 28-32-0 |
| New Mexico State | −3.4 | +2.9 | 31-47-2 then 34-27-0 |
| Louisville | −3.4 | +1.9 | 34-44-0 then 30-33-0 |
| UConn | −3.2 | +2.4 | 27-50-0 then 33-24-2 |
| San José State | −3.1 | −2.0 | 36-40-2 then 28-31-1 |
| Akron | −3.0 | −1.5 | 33-46-0 then 30-31-0 |
| Arkansas | −2.7 | −1.3 | 38-38-1 then 30-30-1 |
| Tennessee | −2.7 | +2.5 | 34-43-0 then 32-29-0 |
| Nebraska | −2.6 | 0.0 | 38-41-2 then 30-29-3 |
| Hawai'i | −2.6 | −0.3 | 32-50-2 then 33-29-2 |
| Minnesota | +2.6 | −0.3 | 42-32-6 then 30-31-1 |
| Alabama | +2.8 | +0.1 | 43-38-0 then 36-26-3 |
| Houston | +2.8 | +0.3 | 45-32-1 then 30-34-1 |
| Clemson | +3.1 | −2.2 | 44-36-1 then 30-32-0 |
| Memphis | +3.1 | +1.0 | 42-35-2 then 28-32-1 |
| Kansas State | +3.3 | +3.0 | 45-32-0 then 32-27-2 |
| Western Kentucky | +3.4 | +0.6 | 42-38-1 then 38-26-0 |
| Washington | +3.5 | −1.1 | 41-39-0 then 26-36-1 |
| App State | +3.6 | −1.6 | 35-30-2 then 28-30-2 |
| Ohio State | +3.9 | +2.0 | 45-42-1 then 37-25-4 |
| Temple | +4.7 | −3.8 | 54-26-0 then 26-35-1 |
| Iowa | +4.9 | +2.5 | 41-37-2 then 36-26-2 |
Thirteen seasons of closing lines say a team’s record against the spread barely carries from one month to the next, let alone one year to the next. With three exceptions.
By Mason2 min read
UCLA and Nebraska are both 6–0 against the spread. Texas, with the second-most talented roster in the country, is 1–5. Oregon is 1–4. If you follow the line at all, you already have opinions about those four teams.
Thirteen seasons of closing lines say almost none of those opinions will hold.
Hot starts cool off
Every season since 2013, I took the 12 best covering teams through week 7. On average they had beaten the closing line by 11.4 points a game. Over the rest of those seasons they beat it by nothing at all, and covered 48% of the time. The 12 worst teams did the same thing in reverse.
A team’s first seven weeks against the spread tell you essentially nothing about its last five. The line catches up fast.
So do whole seasons
Take the worst-covering fifth of teams in any season. They covered 33% of the time that year. The next season they covered 51%. The best fifth went from 66% to 51%. Every year the market resets, and last year’s disaster gets a new number.
The chart at the top shows it team by team. Those are the 12 worst and 12 best covering teams from 2013 to 2019, and what they did from 2021 on. Almost every line collapses toward zero.
| Team | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Oregon State | +16.1 | 5-1 in 6 games |
| UCLA | +15.4 | 6-0 in 6 games |
| New Mexico | +14.6 | 4-1 in 5 games |
| Wake Forest | +14.2 | 5-2 in 7 games |
| Liberty | +12.5 | 4-1 in 5 games |
| Northwestern | +12.1 | 3-2 in 5 games |
| James Madison | +10.5 | 5-1 in 6 games |
| Georgia State | +9.6 | 4-1 in 5 games |
| Nebraska | +9.1 | 6-0 in 6 games |
| North Texas | +9.0 | 3-2 in 5 games |
| Louisiana | +8.9 | 4-1-1 in 6 games |
| Massachusetts | +8.7 | 3-2 in 5 games |
| SMU | −8.0 | 0-3-2 in 5 games |
| Old Dominion | −8.1 | 1-5 in 6 games |
| Washington | −8.6 | 2-4 in 6 games |
| UL Monroe | −9.4 | 1-4 in 5 games |
| San Diego State | −9.8 | 2-4 in 6 games |
| Marshall | −10.5 | 1-4 in 5 games |
| Maryland | −10.5 | 2-4 in 6 games |
| Oregon | −11.1 | 1-4 in 5 games |
| Stanford | −11.3 | 2-4 in 6 games |
| UTEP | −11.5 | 0-6 in 6 games |
| Arizona State | −13.1 | 1-4 in 5 games |
| Sacramento State | −15.2 | 1-5 in 6 games |
That’s this year’s board. It looks dramatic. A computer flipping a coin for every game produces one just as dramatic. In a typical coin-flip version of this season, the best team beats the line by 15.8 points a game. Oregon State, the real leader, is at 16.1.
The exceptions
Three teams look like they might be the real thing.
- Maryland is the worst-covering program since 2013: 63–82, falling short of the line by 3.4 points a game. Unlike almost everyone else on the chart, it stayed bad after 2020.
- UL Monroe has finished below .500 against the spread in 12 of 13 seasons and above it in none. There’s only about a 1-in-22 chance luck hands any team in the country a run like that.
- Iowa is the best-covering program since 2013, beating the line by 4.2 points a game (81–65–6). That’s on the edge of what luck can explain.
There’s no blue-blood tax
The theory goes that big brands get inflated lines because everyone bets them. I took 12 of them (Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Penn State and Clemson) against everyone else since 2013. They’re 790–719 against the spread. If anything, they cover a little more often than not. Only USC and Florida are under 50%.
So Texas at 1–5 isn’t a trend yet. It’s six games. If you want a team that never covers, the data has one candidate, and it’s Maryland.