Saturday
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No. 1

The last two weeks, #1 has fallen. This hasn’t happened since 1990.

1990

the last time an unranked team beat No. 1 two weeks in a row, until this month

Every time No. 1 lost to an unranked teamAP poll No. 1 at kickoff, regular season, 1936 to now. Each stamp is the team that pulled the upset. Source: CollegeFootballData.com.
Every time No. 1 lost to an unranked team
EventWinnerLoserSeasonNote
Duquesne 21, No. 1 Pittsburgh 13DuquesnePittsburgh1939Oct 21, 1939
Auburn 27, No. 1 Georgia 13AuburnGeorgia1942Nov 21, 1942
Holy Cross 55, No. 1 Boston College 12Holy CrossBoston College1942Nov 28, 1942
Great Lakes Navy 19, No. 1 Notre Dame 14Great Lakes NavyNotre Dame1943Nov 27, 1943
Purdue 28, No. 1 Notre Dame 14PurdueNotre Dame1950Oct 7, 1950
Ohio State 23, No. 1 Wisconsin 14Ohio StateWisconsin1952Oct 11, 1952
Illinois 20, No. 1 Michigan State 13IllinoisMichigan State1956Oct 27, 1956
Purdue 20, No. 1 Michigan State 13PurdueMichigan State1957Oct 19, 1957
Purdue 23, No. 1 Minnesota 14PurdueMinnesota1960Nov 12, 1960
Kansas 23, No. 1 Missouri 7KansasMissouri1960Nov 19, 1960
Minnesota 13, No. 1 Michigan State 0MinnesotaMichigan State1961Nov 4, 1961
TCU 6, No. 1 Texas 0TCUTexas1961Nov 18, 1961
UCLA 9, No. 1 Ohio State 7UCLAOhio State1962Oct 6, 1962
Georgia Tech 7, No. 1 Alabama 6Georgia TechAlabama1962Nov 17, 1962
Kentucky 27, No. 1 Ole Miss 21KentuckyOle Miss1964Sep 26, 1964
USC 20, No. 1 Notre Dame 17USCNotre Dame1964Nov 28, 1964
Oregon State 3, No. 1 USC 0Oregon StateUSC1967Nov 11, 1967
UCLA 20, No. 1 Nebraska 17UCLANebraska1972Sep 9, 1972
Michigan State 16, No. 1 Ohio State 13Michigan StateOhio State1974Nov 9, 1974
Purdue 16, No. 1 Michigan 14PurdueMichigan1976Nov 6, 1976
Minnesota 16, No. 1 Michigan 0MinnesotaMichigan1977Oct 22, 1977
Mississippi State 6, No. 1 Alabama 3Mississippi StateAlabama1980Nov 1, 1980
Wisconsin 21, No. 1 Michigan 14WisconsinMichigan1981Sep 12, 1981
Arizona 13, No. 1 USC 10ArizonaUSC1981Oct 10, 1981
Arkansas 42, No. 1 Texas 11ArkansasTexas1981Oct 17, 1981
Miami 17, No. 1 Penn State 14MiamiPenn State1981Oct 31, 1981
Notre Dame 31, No. 1 Pittsburgh 16Notre DamePittsburgh1982Nov 6, 1982
Syracuse 17, No. 1 Nebraska 9SyracuseNebraska1984Sep 29, 1984
Tennessee 38, No. 1 Auburn 20TennesseeAuburn1985Sep 28, 1985
Washington State 34, No. 1 UCLA 30Washington StateUCLA1988Oct 29, 1988
Stanford 36, No. 1 Notre Dame 31StanfordNotre Dame1990Oct 6, 1990
Michigan State 28, No. 1 Michigan 27Michigan StateMichigan1990Oct 13, 1990
Michigan State 28, No. 1 Ohio State 24Michigan StateOhio State1998Nov 7, 1998
Auburn 23, No. 1 Florida 20AuburnFlorida2001Oct 13, 2001
Texas A&M 30, No. 1 Oklahoma 26Texas A&MOklahoma2002Nov 9, 2002
Illinois 28, No. 1 Ohio State 21IllinoisOhio State2007Nov 10, 2007
Arkansas 50, No. 1 LSU 48ArkansasLSU2007Nov 23, 2007
Oregon State 27, No. 1 USC 21Oregon StateUSC2008Sep 25, 2008
Texas A&M 41, No. 1 Alabama 38Texas A&MAlabama2021Oct 9, 2021. Alabama was favored by 18.5
Vanderbilt 40, No. 1 Alabama 35VanderbiltAlabama2024Oct 5, 2024. Alabama was favored by 23
Oklahoma 27, No. 1 Texas 24OklahomaTexas2026Oct 10, 2026. Texas was favored by 8
Auburn 27, No. 1 Georgia 24AuburnGeorgia2026Oct 17, 2026. Georgia was favored by 19.5

For 13 years no unranked team beat the No. 1 team in the country. Now it has happened four times in five years, twice this month.

By Mason2 min read

For 13 years, being No. 1 in the AP poll came with a near guarantee. You might lose, but not to somebody unranked.

From September 2008, when Oregon State took down USC on a Thursday night, to October 2021, the No. 1 team went 166–20. All 20 losses came against ranked teams.

Oklahoma beat No. 1 Texas 27–24 on October 10. Seven days later Auburn walked into Athens as a 19.5-point underdog and beat No. 1 Georgia, 27–24 again. That’s four unranked teams over No. 1 in the last five years, after none in the 13 before.

Two weeks in a row is statistically improbable. The last time was October 1990 when Stanford beat No. 1 Notre Dame, and the very next Saturday Michigan State beat the new No. 1, Michigan, 28–27. It has only happened five times since the AP poll began in 1936 (1942, 1960, 1981, 1990 and now). Add Ohio State’s 24–23 loss to Texas in September and three different No. 1 teams have already lost this season, with half of it still to play.

These come in waves

Look at the chart and the stamps bunch together. The early 1960s were chaos. 1981 alone had four: Wisconsin, Arizona, Arkansas and Miami all beat a No. 1 while unranked. Then the 2010s went the whole decade without one.

My guess is the empty years on the chart say more about how good the No. 1 teams were than about luck. Either way, the quiet period might be over. Could this be NIL parity? Could it be the transfer portal? I’m not too sure.

The usual suspects

Nobody has pulled this off more than Purdue: four times (Notre Dame in 1950, Michigan State in 1957, Minnesota in 1960, Michigan in 1976). Auburn and Michigan State have three each. Texas A&M has two, both against powerhouses: Oklahoma in 2002 and Alabama in 2021.

So, Miami

Miami is the new No. 1 and hosts Pitt on Saturday. As of Monday, Saturday’s model has Miami by about 20, almost exactly where Georgia stood against Auburn.

That sounds safe. It isn’t quite. Since 2013, favorites of 17 to 23 points have lost outright 100 times in 1,164 games, about one in 12. Georgia was one of them on Saturday.

Mason’s Musings · No. 1