No. 4
The preseason No. 1 hasn’t finished No. 1 since 2017
straight seasons the AP’s preseason No. 1 has failed to finish No. 1
| Team | Preseason | Final | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Ohio State | 1 | 3 | No. 3 after week 8, season in progress |
| 2025 Texas | 1 | 12 | Finished No. 12 |
| 2024 Georgia | 1 | 6 | Finished No. 6 |
| 2023 Georgia | 1 | 4 | Finished No. 4 |
| 2022 Alabama | 1 | 5 | Finished No. 5 |
| 2021 Alabama | 1 | 2 | Finished No. 2 |
| 2020 Clemson | 1 | 3 | Finished No. 3 |
| 2019 Clemson | 1 | 2 | Finished No. 2 |
| 2018 Alabama | 1 | 2 | Finished No. 2 |
| 2017 Alabama | 1 | 1 | Finished No. 1 |
| 2016 Alabama | 1 | 2 | Finished No. 2 |
| 2015 Ohio State | 1 | 4 | Finished No. 4 |
| 2014 Florida State | 1 | 5 | Finished No. 5 |
| 2013 Alabama | 1 | 7 | Finished No. 7 |
| 2012 USC | 1 | 26 | Finished unranked |
| 2011 Oklahoma | 1 | 16 | Finished No. 16 |
| 2010 Alabama | 1 | 10 | Finished No. 10 |
| 2009 Florida | 1 | 3 | Finished No. 3 |
| 2008 Georgia | 1 | 13 | Finished No. 13 |
| 2007 USC | 1 | 3 | Finished No. 3 |
| 2006 Ohio State | 1 | 2 | Finished No. 2 |
| 2005 USC | 1 | 2 | Finished No. 2 |
| 2004 USC | 1 | 1 | Finished No. 1 |
| 2003 Oklahoma | 1 | 3 | Finished No. 3 |
| 2002 Miami | 1 | 2 | Finished No. 2 |
| 2001 Florida | 1 | 3 | Finished No. 3 |
| 2000 Nebraska | 1 | 8 | Finished No. 8 |
Ohio State started 2026 on top of the AP poll and sits third today. That’s about where preseason No. 1s end up.
By Mason2 min read
Every August, the AP voters pick a No. 1. Every January since 2017, somebody else has finished there.
Ohio State opened 2026 at No. 1. Eight weeks in, it’s No. 3, behind Miami (No. 7 in the preseason) and BYU (No. 14). If that feels like a disappointment, it shouldn’t. It’s the most normal thing a preseason No. 1 does.
Close, but almost never first
Since 2000 the preseason No. 1 has finished No. 1 exactly twice: USC in 2004 and Alabama in 2017. Go all the way back to 1950, when the AP started its preseason poll, and it’s 11 times in 76 seasons.
The last eight: Alabama finished 2nd, Clemson 2nd, Clemson 3rd, Alabama 2nd, Alabama 5th, Georgia 4th, Georgia 6th and Texas 12th.
So the voters aren’t usually far off. Eighteen of the 26 preseason No. 1s since 2000 finished in the top five, and No. 2 is the most common landing spot. One team just keeps getting to the finish line first, and it’s rarely the one everybody picked.
The preseason No. 1 is a good guess at the best team in the country. It’s a bad guess at the champion.
Where the poll really misses
The top of the poll is the part the voters get right. The bottom is where potential goes to die.
Last season, 11 of the 25 preseason teams finished unranked, including Penn State, which started No. 2. Indiana started No. 20 and won everything. This season, seven preseason top-25 teams are already out of the poll after eight weeks, including Oregon, which started No. 2.
Some programs make a habit of it. Texas A&M has been ranked in the preseason poll 12 times since 2000 and finished unranked in nine of them. Auburn has started in the preseason top ten 18 times since 1950 and finished unranked in seven.
In fairness, a field this big will always have a couple of programs that look cursed by chance alone, and the math says these two could be just that. It’s still a lot of Augusts.
So, Ohio State
Ohio State is No. 3. Over the last 26 years that’s a perfectly ordinary place for a preseason No. 1 to be in November. The hard part is the last step, and the last eight preseason No. 1s didn’t take it.